Geopolitical impacts analysis blog post. How could the rise of AI exacerbate or mitigate existing regional power dynamics and tensions in the Middle East?
OpenEdition schlägt Ihnen vor, diesen Beitrag wie folgt zu zitieren:
Victoria Mummelthei (11. Juni 2024). ai and the Middle East, assignment complementing chapter “Power” (deadline June 21). Keine Disziplin – No Discipline. Abgerufen am 27. März 2025 von https://doi.org/10.58079/13jr8
The impact of AI on current regional power dynamics and tensions in the Middle East poses both risks and opportunities. The use of AI in military and civilian fields can exacerbate conflicts in the region or contribute to the solution of existing problems. To summarize a few examples: Firstly, the fact that the conflicts in the Middle East have global repercussions makes the impact of AI technologies on these regional problems even more critical. AI can be an important tool in analyzing conflicts in the region and developing solutions. Moreover, access to and effective use of AI technologies could create an important balance of power among countries in the region. Countries with technological superiority can intervene more effectively in regional problems. Secondly, nuclear-armed countries seriously affect the balance of power in the Middle East, and this puts pressure on countries that do not have nuclear capabilities. This imbalance increases the potential for conflict in the region. Integrating nuclear weapons with AI systems could seriously change security dynamics in the Middle East. The impact of AI on the control and use of nuclear weapons poses major risks to global security. Finally, governments in the Middle East are beginning to rely more on AI-based data analytics in their decision-making processes. This can contribute to making policies and strategies more data-driven and effective.
Artificial intelligence, like any technological advancement, has yet to receive adequate legal regulation. It is crucial to recognize that AI should not be considered in isolation from other aspects of human life. Similar to the technological, electrical, resource consumption, and international market revolutions, society had to adapt its legal frameworks to accommodate these changes. Any progress or change necessitates an update in legislation, and this is equally true for artificial intelligence. Historical precedents, such as the regulation of electricity for safety and standardization, the introduction of traffic laws and safety standards for automobiles, the establishment of data protection laws and cybercrime regulations for the internet, the ethical guidelines and rules for genetic engineering, and the international and national standards for nuclear energy safety, illustrate that there is nothing inherently new about the need to regulate AI. There will inevitably be a tendency towards either excessive regulation or excessive freedom, both of which could lead to human rights violations and societal disruptions. Nevertheless, this is a natural process that humanity must undergo to find effective solutions. The key is to maintain an ongoing discourse and avoid extreme positions, allowing for future development and progress.
The usage of AI can affect the Middle East’s power dynamics and tensions. First of all, authoritarian regimes can increase their control and surveillance of their populations. Examples such as China’s Social Credit System can also be adopted in the Middle East. If it happens, AI can create social tension with increasing pressure on the population.
Power balance is another issue that AI can aggravate. For example, powerful countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can consolidate their regional impact with AI systems. So, technological superiority can be a key issue in the relations of the countries in the Middle East.
On the other hand, nothing is wholly negative. There is a potential to enhance regional cooperation and stability in the Middle East by using AI. For instance, AI systems that are used in agriculture can increase production by the efficient use of water resources, which is an important issue in the region and can create opportunities for cooperation. In addition, warning systems on possible disasters can create regional solidarity. After all, preventing big disasters can bring countries together.
All in all, the use of AI systems is a complex issue. It is important to recognize that how these AI technologies shape power dynamics in the region will largely depend on how they are used and within what ethical and political frameworks they are applied. If not used appropriately AI systems can make the tension worse or better creating stability and opportunities for cooperation.
I think one of the biggest issues is that with AI technology, the human factor becomes just a data source. That brings up not only security issues in terms of privacy and the risk of being controlled, but also the risk of dissolving culture. For example, there is an app called Hudhud where farmers in Egypt use AI technology for agricultural advice. Although at first glance this app seems useful to control crop efficiency and improve farming, it also works as a way of monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture. The relationship between people and their land is also somewhat loosened because of the trust in AI. For many countries, especially in the MENA region, the relationship with the earth and the land is an important aspect of their culture. This may also threaten some of the agricultural techniques that have been maintained in the region, as confidence in AI may replace such practices. Moreover, according to Omar Shah, there is a big gap between the regulation of AI and the private sector in some of the MENA countries. I think Turkey is one of them. Although there is a special ministry for technology, the government does not have effective regulations. Omar shows that such a gap exposes the risk of digital neoliberalism, capitalism and its enforcement. In the absence of laws that protect people from their data being mined, it is not the governments but the international corporations that have more right to control public opinion. Whoever mines the data, uses it accordingly and profits from it with the help of AI has the power. However, there also needs to be strong institutions to control government regulation of AI, because it also has the potential to be used by governments against people.
Source: https://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/crown-conversations/cc-20.html
Hudhud app: https://www.behance.net/gallery/155996473/HudHud-App-Farmers-Smart-Assistant
Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming various sectors globally, including the realm of geopolitical conflicts. The pervasive integration of AI in technologies like smartphones and search engines indicates its far-reaching impact.
The Middle East has experienced significant strife, particularly in the 21st century, with ongoing conflicts in the Levant, near the Euphrates River, and the Arabian Peninsula. AI has the potential to significantly influence these conflicts, making them more one-sided. A case in point is the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, where Azerbaijan’s military leveraged AI-enhanced drones to dominate the battlefield. These drones, trained for precision, have redefined modern warfare, which current military frameworks do not adequately address.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine illustrates how military power continues to hold substantial geopolitical leverage. Despite European sanctions, Russia’s continued trade relations with non-Western countries have diminished the intended impact of these measures. This example underscores that superior weaponry and technology can suppress uprisings or dissent, regardless of international opposition.
In the Arabian Peninsula, particularly Yemen, the disparity in technological capabilities has led to one-sided conflicts with devastating casualties. The Middle East, known for its frequent and varied conflicts, is poised to become a hotspot for AI-driven military strategies. AI’s ability to conduct surveillance and execute precise strikes without endangering personnel can alter the nature of conflicts, making them less conspicuous due to fewer casualties on the attacking side.
In conclusion, the rise of AI in the Middle East has the potential to both exacerbate and mitigate regional power dynamics and tensions. Its deployment in military conflicts could lead to more asymmetric warfare, with significant implications for regional stability and human rights. As AI technology continues to evolve, its impact on geopolitical landscapes warrants careful consideration and regulation, which currently is nowhere to be seen.
The internet’s freedom has always been limited, and with the rise of AI, those limitations
are expanding. Rather than a utopian online space, the internet increasingly mirrors
real-world inequalities, reflecting social, political, and economic divisions. As discussed
in the “Power” chapter, AI is another reflection of these disparities.
AI’s emergence is likely to lead to more sophisticated forms of censorship. Imagine AI
filtering dissent not by deleting it but by burying it so that others cannot see it. This
subtle suppression makes AI a potentially dangerous tool for powerful actors and Middle
Eastern regimes aiming to silence minorities. The harsh chilling reality is that dissent
vanishes at the decision of AI, unseen by the world.
Such AI-driven censorship poses significant threats to free expression. Regimes could
leverage AI to maintain control by invisibly putting an end to opposition and minority
voices. The subtle and untransparent nature of this technology means that dissenters
might not even realize their voices are being suppressed, as their messages become
lost in a sea of data.
Moreover, I feel closer to Alex Campolo’s idea of “enchanted determinism,” which
suggests that while technology seems to have a magical determinism, it is actually
shaped by human decisions and power structures. I align with a tech dystopian
perspective. While I don’t blame algorithms for the negative outcomes they lead to, I
support the view that the misuse of these AI systems may drag us into an even darker
place regarding freedom of expression in the Middle East.
As previously discussed in the state section, the incorporation of AI technologies into state infrastructure strengthens state surveillance over its citizens. As a result of its development under the control of authoritarian states, for example, the integration of facial recognition systems into the state system and the changing power of CCTV cameras, repression and human rights violations increase. In addition, as Kate Crawford mentions, the use of artificial intelligence technologies for military purposes and the production of autonomous weapons are in a position that makes it difficult to ensure peace in the Middle East geography, where wars are already frequent under the control of non-democratic states. An example of this is the Turkish state’s use of the drones developed by Selçuk Bayraktar in order to intensify the war in Kurdistan and the killing of civilians in Kurdistan. If these examples are taken into consideration, the gaining power of artificial intelligence technologies leads to the abuse of this power by undemocratic states.
As for mitigating factors, it can be observed that in countries where the use of artificial intelligence increases, growth and new business lines are opened in the tech sector. In addition, the integration of artificial intelligence into the state system can play an effective role in better determining the need in social state policies such as education and health and bringing this need together with citizens. On the other hand, artificial intelligence can also play a role in resolving diplomatic disputes. By identifying early warning signs and facilitating timely interventions, AI can help in peace building efforts and conflict resolution.
When such examples are analysed, it is seen that countries gaining strength in artificial intelligence exacerbate or mitigate existing regional power.